Weekly | Slight change of speech
Your weekly summary with the most important news for your investments:
Your weekly summary with the most important news for your investments:
Impact on oil prices.
Results of the main stock market indexes.
Financial sector results.
Movements on the corporate front.
The global geopolitical impact, led by the Israeli government's counter-attack against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, was only felt last Friday when the price of oil rose rapidly to US$88 per barrel and the volatility index (VIX) reached 19 points. This in an environment where the main stock indexes practically moved sideways and the 10-year sovereign rate dropped -18 basis points to close the week at 4.62% in a context where the Federal Reserve (FED) opted to change the message about the evolution of the monetary policy rate in an environment where inflation seems to have lost tendency towards 2%, a subject that we will address in greater detail below. At the same time, the results of the country's main financial institutions came in above market expectations, where the consensus of a possible U.S. economic recession was disappearing from the word without most of them mentioning an increase in risk if the war in the Middle East drags other countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, into the conflict.
This week ahead will again include a slew of verbal interventions by Fed representatives including comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell the following Thursday, seeking to give some monetary direction in the changing geopolitical environment that may bring another set of unexpected macroeconomic shocks. Data related to U.S. industrial production and retail sales will also be released, which otherwise continue to show a more robust economy than expected. On the corporate side, financial institutions such as American Express, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will continue to report their quarterly results along with some other companies including AT&T, American Airlines, Netflix and Tesla, which will give us a glimpse of the local and global economy. Meanwhile the strike led by the UAW auto union continues without resolution with the recall of nearly 9,000 other unionized employees during the week forcing Ford to close its largest production plant in Kentucky. Finally, today Disney celebrates its 100th anniversary, marking a business milestone in the United States. Birkenstock's initial placement did not have the expected results as the share price quickly dropped below the placement price.
Let us briefly review last month's inflation data, where the headline figure remained unchanged at 3.7%. The core figure, which excludes food and energy prices, eased to 4.1% (from 4.3%). However, the Fed's concern now lies in the formal change in producer inflation data, where headline inflation rose to 2.2% (from 2%) while core inflation rose to 2.7% (from 2.5%). This in an environment where the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting presented divided comments about potential hikes in the monetary policy rate as follows:
"Most participants felt that one more increase in the federal funds target rate at a future meeting would probably be appropriate, while some felt that further increases would probably not be warranted."
Yet Fed representative Christopher Waller continued his anti-inflationary rhetoric by mentioning that:
"That is why we have taken strong action aimed at reducing inflation and why we will continue to work toward our goal [of bringing inflation toward 2%]."
On the corporate front, the focus was on banking results where the overall picture was similar, with revenues increasing due to higher U.S. interest rates and an increase in provisions due to a slight deterioration in consumer and commercial real estate loan portfolios. However, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon noted the following:
"U.S. consumers and businesses generally remain healthy, although consumers are spending their excess cash" sounding a note of caution by noting, "The war in Ukraine, compounded by last week's attacks on Israel, may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade and geopolitical relations. This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades."
However, the week came on the heels of the change in credit risk models to be adopted by the Fed for the nation's largest financial institutions through various speeches that can be summarized as follows in comments managed by Fed representative Michelle Bowman, mentioning that:
"While many banks are well positioned to work with their borrowers to restructure loans or mitigate related downside risks, some banks with large, undiversified, geographically concentrated commercial real estate portfolios may be at greater risk. While it is important that the banking system be well regulated and supervised, it is equally important that this be the case for other types of financial institutions, products or services. Developing effective frameworks to regulate and supervise common financial markets and products is important to ensure consumer protection and the stability of the financial system."
On the international front, China apparently continues to slow economically as inflation last month was 0% (from 0.1%). Meanwhile, the Israeli-led war against Hamas is reportedly entering a new phase as there has been a reported movement of people towards the border with Egypt in anticipation of a frontal assault by Israeli forces where the BBC already reports that the death toll in the Gaza Strip totals almost 3,000 along with almost 10,000 wounded. For now, international authorities are seeking to avoid the involvement of other countries such as Lebanon and Iran, however, geopolitical tensions could quickly lead to the involvement of other actors.
In conclusion, it is to be expected that in the United States the focus will continue to be on the quarterly results of companies, with the conflict in the Middle East being a peripheral risk for the time being.
This Week
Monday (October 16)
Quarterly Reports
HDFC Bank Limited
The Charles Schwab Corporation
Equity Lifestyle Properties, Inc.
ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.
Enerpac Tool Group Corp.
Economic Reports
Empire State NY Manufacturing Index Report
Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
Tuesday (Oct. 17)
Quarterly Reports
Johnson & Johnson
Bank of America Corporation
Lockheed Martin Corporation
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)
Prologis, Inc.
America Movil,
The Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation
Economic Reports
Retail Monthly Change in Sales Report
Red Book Monthly Change Report
Speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
Speech by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
Wednesday (October 18)
Quarterly Reports
Tesla, Inc.
Procter & Gamble Company (The)
Netflix, Inc.
Morgan Stanley
U.S. Bancorp
Economic Reports
Speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
Remarks by New York Fed President John Williams
Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller
Remarks by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
Thursday (October 19)
Quarterly Reports
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
Philip Morris International Inc.
Union Pacific Corporation
AT&T Inc.
Intuitive Surgical, Inc.
Economic Reports
Initial Jobless Claims Report
Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
Friday (October 20)
Quarterly Reports
American Express Company
Schlumberger N.V.
Regions Financial Corporation
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
Autoliv, Inc.
Economic Reports
Preliminary consumer sentiment report, Michigan.
Speech by Fed Chairman Loretta Mester, Cleveland.
Now you have more information about your investments. See you next week with more news.
*This is an illustrative example and does not represent an investment recommendation.